Some implications of sampling choices on comparisons between satellite and model aerosol optical depth fields

The comparison of satellite and model aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields provides useful information on the strengths and weaknesses of both. However, the sampling of satellite and models is very different and some subjective decisions about data selection and aggregation must be made in order to perform such comparisons. This work examines some implications of these decisions, using GlobAerosol AOD retrievals at 550 nm from Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) measurements, and aerosol fields from the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. It is recommended to sample the model only where the satellite flies over on a particular day; neglecting this can cause regional differences in model AOD of up to 0.1 on monthly and annual timescales. The comparison is observed to depend strongly upon thresholds for sparsity of satellite retrievals in the model grid cells. Requiring at least 25% coverage of the model grid cell by satellite data decreases the observed difference between the two by approximately half over land. The impact over ocean is smaller. In both model and satellite datasets, there is an anticorrelation between the proportion <i>p</i> of a model grid cell covered by satellite retrievals and the AOD. This is attributed to small <i>p</i> typically occuring due to high cloud cover and lower AODs being found in large clear-sky regions. Daily median AATSR AODs were found to be closer to GEOS-Chem AODs than daily means (with the root mean squared difference being approximately 0.05 smaller). This is due to the decreased sensitivity of medians to outliers such as cloud-contaminated retrievals, or aerosol point sources not included in the model

Estimating Marine Aerosol Particle Volume and Number from Maritime Aerosol Network Data

As well as spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol composition and concentration (number, volume, or mass) are of interest for a variety of applications. However, remote sensing of these quantities is more difficult than for AOD, as it is more sensitive to assumptions relating to aerosol composition. This study uses spectral AOD measured on Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) cruises, with the additional constraint of a microphysical model for unpolluted maritime aerosol based on analysis of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) inversions, to estimate these quantities over open ocean. When the MAN data are subset to those likely to be comprised of maritime aerosol, number and volume concentrations obtained are physically reasonable. Attempts to estimate surface concentration from columnar abundance, however, are shown to be limited by uncertainties in vertical distribution. Columnar AOD at 550 nm and aerosol number for unpolluted maritime cases are also compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, for both the present Collection 5.1 and forthcoming Collection 6. MODIS provides a best-fitting retrieval solution, as well as the average for several different solutions, with different aerosol microphysical models. The average solution MODIS dataset agrees more closely with MAN than the best solution dataset. Terra tends to retrieve lower aerosol number than MAN, and Aqua higher, linked with differences in the aerosol models commonly chosen. Collection 6 AOD is likely to agree more closely with MAN over open ocean than Collection 5.1. In situations where spectral AOD is measured accurately, and aerosol microphysical properties are reasonably well-constrained, estimates of aerosol number and volume using MAN or similar data would provide for a greater variety of potential comparisons with aerosol properties derived from satellite or chemistry transport model data

The recent secular trend in grip strength among older adults: findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Purpose: Weaker grip strength in older adults is associated with adverse health outcomes and is a key component of sarcopenia. The secular trend of grip strength is, therefore, relevant in the setting of ageing populations. A recent study suggested differences in this trend among countries in mainland Europe. We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to investigate the recent secular trend of older English adults. Methods: We used data on participants aged 50–89 having their first measurement of grip strength in waves 2 (2002/2003), 4 (2008/2009) or 6 (2012/2013) of ELSA. Grip was measured using a Smedley dynamometer. We expressed grip values as Z-scores (number of standard deviations above the age and gender mean from normative data) for use in linear regression analyses examining the annual secular trend after adjustment for potential confounders. Results: We included a total of 11,476 participants from the three waves of ELSA. Grip strength declined across the three waves, with mean (SD) Z-scores of 0.01 (0.94), − 0.06 (0.97) and − 0.20 (0.98) in waves 2, 4 and 6, respectively. The annual Z-score decline after adjustments was 0.03 SDs (95% CI 0.02, 0.03) per year. Conclusion: We saw evidence of a recent slight decline in the grip strength of older English adults. Over the 9-year period of this study, the decline seen is equivalent to 65-year-olds’ mean strength declining to that previously seen in individuals at age 69. Further monitoring of secular trends in grip strength and investigation of possible causes are warranted

Validation and Uncertainty Estimates for MODIS Collection 6 "Deep Blue" Aerosol Data

The "Deep Blue" aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm was introduced in Collection 5 of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product suite, and complemented the existing "Dark Target" land and ocean algorithms by retrieving AOD over bright arid land surfaces, such as deserts. The forthcoming Collection 6 of MODIS products will include a "second generation" Deep Blue algorithm, expanding coverage to all cloud-free and snow-free land surfaces. The Deep Blue dataset will also provide an estimate of the absolute uncertainty on AOD at 550 nm for each retrieval. This study describes the validation of Deep Blue Collection 6 AOD at 550 nm (Tau(sub M)) from MODIS Aqua against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data from 60 sites to quantify these uncertainties. The highest quality (denoted quality assurance flag value 3) data are shown to have an absolute uncertainty of approximately (0.086+0.56Tau(sub M))/AMF, where AMF is the geometric air mass factor. For a typical AMF of 2.8, this is approximately 0.03+0.20Tau(sub M), comparable in quality to other satellite AOD datasets. Regional variability of retrieval performance and comparisons against Collection 5 results are also discussed

A Pure Marine Aerosol Model, for Use in Remote Sensing Applications

Retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and related parameters from satellite measurements typically involve prescribed models of aerosol size and composition, and are therefore dependent on how well these models are able to represent the radiative behaviour of real aerosols, This study uses aerosol volume size distributions retrieved from Sun-photometer measurements at 11 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) island sites, spread throughout the world's oceans, as a basis to define such a model for unpolluted maritime aerosols. Size distributions are observed to be bimodal and approximately lognormal, although the coarse mode is skewed with a long tail on the low-radius end, The relationship of AOD and size distribution parameters to meteorological conditions is also examined, As wind speed increases, so do coarse-mode volume and radius, The AOD and Angstrom exponent (alpha) show linear relationships with wind speed, although there is considerable scatter in all these relationships, limiting their predictive power. Links between aerosol properties and near-surface relative humidity, columnar water vapor, and sea surface temperature are also explored. A recommended bimodal maritime model, which is able to reconstruct the AERONET AOD with accuracy of order 0.01-0.02, is presented for use in aerosol remote sensing applications. This accuracy holds at most sites and for wavelengths between 340 nm and 1020 nm. Calculated lidar ratios are also provided, and differ significantly from those currently used in Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) processing

Peer review and citation data in predicting university rankings, a large-scale analysis

Most Performance-based Research Funding Systems (PRFS) draw on peer review and bibliometric indicators, two different method- ologies which are sometimes combined. A common argument against the use of indicators in such research evaluation exercises is their low corre- lation at the article level with peer review judgments. In this study, we analyse 191,000 papers from 154 higher education institutes which were peer reviewed in a national research evaluation exercise. We combine these data with 6.95 million citations to the original papers. We show that when citation-based indicators are applied at the institutional or departmental level, rather than at the level of individual papers, surpris- ingly large correlations with peer review judgments can be observed, up to r <= 0.802, n = 37, p < 0.001 for some disciplines. In our evaluation of ranking prediction performance based on citation data, we show we can reduce the mean rank prediction error by 25% compared to previous work. This suggests that citation-based indicators are sufficiently aligned with peer review results at the institutional level to be used to lessen the overall burden of peer review on national evaluation exercises leading to considerable cost savings

Opportunity or dead end? Rethinking the study of entrepreneurial action without a concept of opportunity

This article has two objectives: to critique the dominant opportunity discovery and creation literatures and to propose a new, critical realist–inspired analytical framework to theorise the causes, processes and consequences of entrepreneurial action – one that needs no concept of opportunity. We offer three reasons to support our critique of opportunity studies. First, there are important absences, contradictions and inconsistencies in definitions of opportunity in theoretical and empirical work that mean the term cannot signal a clear direction for theorising or empirical research. Our central criticism is that the concept of opportunity cannot refer simultaneously, without contradiction, to a social context offering profit-making prospects, to particular practices and to agents’ subjective beliefs or imagined futures. Second, a new definition of opportunity would perpetuate the conceptual chaos. Third, useful concepts to capture important entrepreneurial processes are readily available, for instance, combining resources, creating new ventures and achieving product sales, which render a concept of opportunity superfluous. Instead, we conceptualise entrepreneurial action as investments in resources intended to create new goods and services for market exchange emergent from the interaction between agential, socialstructural and cultural causal powers

Antibiotics for exacerbations of asthma.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a chronic respiratory condition that affects over 300 million adults and children worldwide. It is characterised by wheeze, cough, chest tightness, and shortness of breath. Symptoms typically are intermittent and may worsen over a short time, leading to an exacerbation. Asthma exacerbations can be serious, leading to hospitalisation or even death in rare cases. Exacerbations may be treated by increasing an individual's usual medication and providing additional medication, such as oral steroids. Although antibiotics are sometimes included in the treatment regimen, bacterial infections are thought to be responsible for only a minority of exacerbations, and current guidance states that antibiotics should be reserved for cases in which clear signs, symptoms, or laboratory test results are suggestive of bacterial infection. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy and safety of antibiotics in the treatment of asthma exacerbations. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Airways Trials Register, which contains records compiled from multiple electronic and handsearched resources. We also searched trial registries and reference lists of primary studies. We conducted the most recent search in October 2017. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies comparing antibiotic therapy for asthma exacerbations in adults or children versus placebo or usual care not involving an antibiotic. We allowed studies including any type of antibiotic, any dose, and any duration, providing the aim was to treat the exacerbation. We included parallel studies of any duration conducted in any setting and planned to include cluster trials. We excluded cross-over trials. We included studies reported as full-text articles, those published as abstracts only, and unpublished data. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors screened the search results for eligible studies. We extracted outcome data, assessed risk of bias in duplicate, and resolved discrepancies by involving another review author. We analysed dichotomous data as odds ratios (ORs) or risk differences (RDs), and continuous data as mean differences (MDs), all with a fixed-effect model. We described skewed data narratively. We graded the results and presented evidence in 'Summary of findings' tables for each comparison. Primary outcomes were intensive care unit/high dependence unit (ICU/HDU) admission, duration of symptoms/exacerbations, and all adverse events. Seconday outcomes were mortality, length of hospital admission, relapse after index presentation, and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR). MAIN RESULTS: Six studies met our inclusion criteria and included a total of 681 adults and children with exacerbations of asthma. Mean age in the three studies in adults ranged from 36.2 to 41.2 years. The three studies in children applied varied inclusion criteria, ranging from one to 18 years of age. Five studies explicitly excluded participants with obvious signs and symptoms of bacterial infection (i.e. those clearly meeting current guidance to receive antibiotics). Four studies investigated macrolide antibiotics, and two studies investigated penicillin (amoxicillin and ampicillin) antibiotics; both studies using penicillin were conducted over 35 years ago. Five studies compared antibiotics versus placebo, and one was open-label. Study follow-up ranged from one to twelve weeks. Trials were of varied methodological quality, and we were able to perform only limited meta-analysis.None of the included trials reported ICU/HDU admission, although one participant in the placebo group of a study including children with status asthmaticus experienced a respiratory arrest and was ventilated. Four studies reported asthma symptoms, but we were able to combine results for only two macrolide studies of 416 participants; the MD in diary card symptom score was -0.34 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.60 to -0.08), with lower scores (on a 7 point scale) denoting improved symptoms. Two macrolide studies reported symptom-free days. One study of 255 adults authors reported the percentage of symptom-free days at 10 days as 16% in the antibiotic group and 8% in the placebo group. In a further study of 40 children study authors reported significantly more symptom-free days at all time points in the antibiotic group compared with the usual care group. The same study reported the duration in days of the index asthma exacerbation, again favouring the antibiotic group. One study of a penicillin including 69 participants reported asthma symptoms at hospital discharge; the between-group difference for both studies was reported as non-significant.We combined data for serious adverse events from three studies involving 502 participants, but events were rare; the three trials reported only 10 events: five in the antibiotic group and five in the placebo group. We combined data for all adverse events (AEs) from three studies, but the effect estimate is imprecise (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.43). No deaths were reported in any of the included studies.Two studies investigating penicillins reported admission duration; neither study reported a between-group difference. In one study (263 participants) of macrolides, two participants in each arm were reported as experiencing a relapse, defined as a further exacerbation, by the six-week time points. We combined PEFR endpoint results at 10 days for two macrolide studies; the result favoured antibiotics over placebo (MD 23.42 L/min, 95% CI 5.23 to 41.60). One study in children reported the maximum peak flow recorded during the follow-up period, favouring the clarithromycin group, but the confidence interval includes no difference (MD 38.80, 95% CI -11.19 to 88.79).Grading of outcomes ranged from moderate to very low quality, with quality of outcomes downgraded for suspicion of publication bias, indirectness, imprecision, and poor methodological quality of studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found limited evidence that antibiotics given at the time of an asthma exacerbation may improve symptoms and PEFR at follow-up compared with standard care or placebo. However, findings were inconsistent across the six heterogeneous studies included, two of the studies were conducted over 30 years ago and most of the participants included in this review were recruited from emergency departments, limiting the applicability of findings to this population. Therefore we have limited confidence in the results. We found insufficient evidence about several patient-important outcomes (e.g. hospital admission) to form conclusions. We were unable to rule out a difference between groups in terms of all adverse events, but serious adverse events were rare